Hello guest, usually i have no much time to motivate my picks, so i have decided to make this introduction to explain how i make my selections.
In many years of betting i have seen that is lucrative to bet against teams that have problems with players as regulars banned or injuried, large turnover, internal problems and so on.
So, my start to choose a bet is to verify if and where there are these kinds of situation.
Naturally, according to circumstances - as kind of problem in the team, position and importance of players out, situation in the other team, strength and fresh trends of the two teams - I’ll choose if and which option (1x2, Under/over, asian , etc.) is to try.
I search these kind of infos in many sites of football news, club’s sites, betting forums, etc., so I can know about difficult circumstances for teams of many Countries and leagues.
Finally, about stake: I’ll bet usually with stake 7/10 that for me means that I’m reasonably convinced about my bet. Sometimes I’ll bet with 6/10 or 8/10 stake, when I’ll be a little less or more confident in a bet for various reasons. Never under 6/10, because for me this means that I don’t have the minimum necessary security to risk my money
Thank for your attention and have a nice bet!

Salve scommettitore, normalmente non ho molto tempo x motivare le mie giocate, così ho pensato di spiegare i motivi che generalmente sono alla base delle mie scommesse.
Gioco da diversi anni e ho avuto soddisfacenti risultati avendo come punto di partenza la ricerca - fatta su siti di informazione sportiva, forum italiani ed esteri, ecc. – di situazioni particolari e negative per le squadre di qualunque campionato e Paese – quali titolari infortunati o squalificati, turn over più o meno ampi, problemi di spogliatoio e/o economici. Ho notato che questi fattori incidono spesso in modo negativo anche su squadre di primo rango, ancora più spesso se si tratta di squadre appartenenti a campionati o leghe inferiori. Trovare queste situazioni è il primo passo; per decidere poi se e che tipo di giocata fare controllo la reale importanza e il ruolo dei giocatori out, la forza e il ruolino recente delle due squadre, ecc.. In questa maniera riesco a scommettere con un certo successo anche su campionati e leghe di cui non ho conoscenza diretta, ma sfruttando le informazioni messe in rete da chi è del posto.
Riguardo lo stake, inteso come fiducia: inserirò quasi sempre uno stake di 7/10 che per me sarà come dire che sono ragionevolmente fiducioso della mia giocata. A volte potrà essere di 6/10 o 8/10 a seconda che il tipo di partita, le informazioni raccolte, ecc.. mi rendano un po’ meno o maggiormente convinto della possibilità che si verifichi il risultato da me pronosticato. Non scenderò mai comunque sotto il 6, perché significherebbe che non ho abbastanza di quanto mi serve per convincermi a rischiare i miei soldi
Grazie per l’attenzione e buone scommesse

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The majority of my picks are published - with infos and motivations - on http://www.bet-up.com/forum/ Italian forum of betting, with a section in English language

La maggior parte delle mie singole giocate sono motivate su http://www.bet-up.com/forum/

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Two teams in fight to not relegate with five rounds to the end.
But seems that Dundalk, that in middle of the season precipitated in a big crisis, is showing signals of improvement with only one loss and three wins in last four matches.

The only troubles for them today is that midfielder Maher (23atts +2 1goal) is in doubt. Out striker Johnny Breen (2atts. +10 1goal), but he is normally a substitute.

The situation is not so quiet in Galway field.
First of all we must remember that they falling in a financial crisis some month ago that caused the exodus of various (and strong) players.

In spite of this they obtained some good result and avoid to precipitate in relegation zone.

But now seems that this situation begin to show limits of Galway.
The team occupy now playout place and is without wins in the last four rounds.
The sector that is suffering a lot in thsi period is defense with - if we add also cup match lost 6-0 against Shamrock - 19 goals scored against in last four matches.

And for tonight regular keeper Barry Ryan(29atts) is in doubt as def. Philip Reilly(5+1 1goal), while are suspended Seamus Conneelly(midf. 28atts.) and Jamie McKenzie(def 30atts.).

Specially if will be confirmed regular gk absence i think that real strenght of teams will be evident today and Galway could suffer another match with a lot of goal against

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Two teams in fight to not relegate with five rounds to the end.
But seems that Dundalk, that in middle of the season precipitated in a big crisis, is showing signals of improvement with only one loss and three wins in last four matches.

The only troubles for them today is that midfielder Maher (23atts +2 1goal) is in doubt. Out striker Johnny Breen (2atts. +10 1goal), but he is normally a substitute.

The situation is not so quiet in Galway field.
First of all we must remember that they falling in a financial crisis some month ago that caused the exodus of various (and strong) players.

In spite of this they obtained some good result and avoid to precipitate in relegation zone.

But now seems that this situation begin to show limits of Galway.
The team occupy now playout place and is without wins in the last four rounds.
The sector that is suffering a lot in thsi period is defense with - if we add also cup match lost 6-0 against Shamrock - 19 goals scored against in last four matches.

And for tonight regular keeper Barry Ryan(29atts) is in doubt as def. Philip Reilly(5+1 1goal), while are suspended Seamus Conneelly(midf. 28atts.) and Jamie McKenzie(def 30atts.).

Specially if will be confirmed regular gk absence i think that real strenght of teams will be evident today and Galway could suffer another match with a lot of goal against

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Bielefeld is a team really weakened respect last year.

Cause financial crisis they sold many important players of last year in transfer market, replacing most of them with players of not the same level and youngsters.

As a result they have only one win, against Ingolstadt at home, and five losses and are second on the bottom in table, with only one goal scored away from home.

To this weakness, specially in attack, today they add troubles in defence, with only two central defenders fit as a consequence of many players injuried.

Infact Pavel Fort (striker), Michael Delura (striker 1att.) and Benjamin Lense (def. 2atts.) are all long term injuried, and for this match they add to the list skipper Kauf (3atts.) and def. Bollman (6atts.) injuried with another defender 17 years old

Paderborn has out striker Manno (1att. 1goal) and midfielder Brandy (5atts +3 1 goal) according to kickers.de and they are another team without great success in championship this year with 1-1-4 and fourth place from the bottom on table.

But against a team that seems the most probable candidate to relegation and with problems in defence they will be able to take three points today

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Ok, San Gallen won his first match just against Bellinzona (in a reverse fixture) for 3-2 on 25th of July, but this thanks to the fact that Bellinzona remained in ten men after leading 2-1.

Then, the second and last won of san Gallo was against Xamax, second from the bottom, three rounds ago.

This speaks about poor form of San Gallo, a team that is the result of a poor summer market as players acquired and a bit of financial troubles.
They are last in table and last also as away performances, with 1-0-4 2/13 (with same Bellinzona the worst away defence).

Add to this, some absences for today match, two, three of them of important players.

Are out Hämmerli Marco (def. 5atts.), Lang Michael (def. 9atts 1goal), Abegglen Nico (striker 8atts. 1goal), Knöpfel Thomas (midf. 0), Owona Brice (striker 2atts.)

Home team, after that match lost against today opponent, has ony another defeat, away against lausanne (6-2). actual leader of Switzerland SuperLeague
Bellinzona is seven on table, this caused to many match drawn, but at home they defeated also Basel for 1-0.
Infact at home they have the fourth vest performance in this championship-
Today they have no missings and can take a revenge of first match against a team poor and without important players

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For this match of Coupe de la Ligue, a team of Ligue two receives a team of Ligue One.

But Valenciennes is in troubles in his Championship with only one win till now.

For them this cup is not a priority, so they will put an alternative team.

This is not only a choice, but it needs to do cause many first teamers injuried (and one suspended.

The list of absentees is: Angoua (def. 2atts.), Bangoura (midf.), Bisevac (def. 5atts.), Gomis (midf. 5atts.), Kadir (midf. 2atts.), Lacourt (midf.), Mfuyi (def.), Pujol (striker 6atts. 2 goals), Rafael (def.), Sanchez (midf.), Bong (def.5atts., banned), while keeper Wimbee is out for trainer choice

In the team are called for today match also three players of reserves team that play in CF2, Sagna, Da silva and Massampu, first two are defender (respectively 20 and 18 years old), the third is a midfielder 18 years old.

Nimes is motivated and i have no found info about turnover for them, list of 18 players called for this match on their site is similar then the composition that played in last championship match lost at Clermont home.

But i think that at home and against not motivated and really delepted Valenciennes, they can win tonight

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Same eleven that defeated Barletta last week for home team, while Viareggio surprisingly won at home stronger Lanciano.
But this team remains one of the relegation candidates for this group, making points till now also only poor newcomer Siracusa (all matches lost till now) and one point in opening round in Andria.

Nocerina seems have good capacity, remaining undefeated till now. Ok, only one win and three draws, but two of them away with stronger teams as Benevento and Pisa.

Finally, some problems for the guests with four players out and one in doubt.
Three of them are midfielders, so i aspect problems specially in tha sector for away team and Viareggio is a young team and should be defeated here

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Good odds for this match in my opinion.
Monza is without wins, yet, but surely they have a more competitive rooster then newcomer Bassano.
They have only two points but are more experinced in thsi championship and are full-team. There is only a doubt on who will goes between the sticks, but rotation between keepers is usual in this team.

Maybe odds could be influenced by last win of Bassano, but the first win of this team after one draw and two defeats, arrived only cause one player banned in Sorrento. With a one man more since 52° minute, Basano first drawn 1-1 and then won at 90°.
And also in that match, Bassano's players seemed less competitive then the opponents.

Now they play this match away and have - as in almost all matches till now, problems with absences: out La Grotteria and Venitucci that join new acquisition Porchia (not played yet) and Niada.

Also in normal conditions they are a weak team and here is possible first win for Monza

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With 29 points and thanks to poor performances of Mervue and Salthill, Longford seems safe from danger of relegation.
O theother front, Derry remain involved in fight to pormotion, second in table and with only one point less from Monaghan and direct promotion place.
But, caused also players unavailable in some match, Derry is in a run with only one win in last four matches losing against Waterford 2-2 and draw with Athlone 2-2 in last two matches.
For this match Derry has regular gk Doherty (26atts.) suspended, while regular def. Deery (14atts. +1) is injuried.
For Longford out def. Deans (22atts. +2 4goals) suspended and def. O'Reilly (15atts.) is doubtful.
Longford has 22 goals against in his 13 home matches, with 20 points of advantage on last place can play risking also something and trying to gain also a win against a stronger opponent and prolems in defence for Derry could help hoem team in this.
On the other front, derry has all the players able to defeat this opponents and must try to win to gain first place and not concede other points to their nearest opponents for playoff place

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Both teams in high part of table, but Cork has few realistic hopes to gain places for promotion with 43 points, while Limerick, with 47 points has eight points less then second in table and placed for playoffs, Derry City.
So, Limerick could be a little more in terms of motivations for today match, but there are considerations in favour of this bet.
Limerick is very strong at home, they have the third best home performances (8-2-3) and the best home defense with only ten goals against. This defence could have some problems tonight with both central Dave Rogers (11ats.+1) and Paddy Purcell (20atts. 1goal) suspended, but Cork has more problems under this point of view.

Infact for away team Stephen Mulcahy (def. 18atts.) and Cathal Lordan (midf 11atts.+1) are injuried, Shane Duggan (midf.24atts. 4goals) is suspended and Graham Cummins (striker 25atts. 15goals topscorer), Gavin Kavanagh (def. 9atts.), Greg O’Halloran (def. 24atts 1goal) are all in doubt.
Interesting to observe also that the scorers of 21 of 32 goals of the team are out or in doubt

In spite of the fact that Cork strenghtned his team in summer market, all these player out - if confirmed out - should be a great problems.

Of course posible that someone in doubt will able to play, but remain to see in which conditions.
Anyway, for this reason and for the two missings in defence for home team, my stake is not higher

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Also in normal conditions i think that Bate is better team then odds around @ 8,00 for an a away win show.

Infact - apart local championship in which they are first in table and with only one match lost after 23 matches - they arrived at this stage after an aggregate lost for only one goal (3-2 away) in qualification for CL, and a double win in the two matches against Maritimo in previous round of EL.

So, they not seems to me a pushing over team. Moreover they have a lot of experience in first rounds of European competitions, having - almost every year - involved in these kind of matches.

But teh thing that convince me to bet on them is the fact that home team will have seven regulars out for this match.

According to local newspaper, for Dinamo will be out Kadurri (def. 1att+2) , Eremenko (midf. 6atts.+1 1goal), Zozulija (striker 3atts.+1) , Popov (def. 5atts.), Danilo Silva(def. 9atts), Bertolio (midf. 3atts. +1) and, the most important, topscorer Schevkenko (striker 6atts. 6goals). Vuchoyevic (midf. 8atts. +1) is also suspended

Schevkencho is a big miss, the other attackers seems not able to find the net, only Yarmolenko scored three goals in seven matches.

With all these troubles in home team i think that Bate can gain at least a point here